We ping you in the evening when the Kp index is high enough for aurora where you are – and never otherwise.
Geomagnetic activity (Kp)
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Kp right now
Aurora directly overhead
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NOAA OVATION — probability right now
How to read the forecast
Three things must line up at once: activity (Kp must reach the threshold for your location), darkness (the sun far enough below the horizon) and clear sky (no clouds). The further north, the lower the Kp needed — in Kiruna Kp 1 is often enough, in Stockholm ~Kp 5 is required, in Malmö ~Kp 6–7. The aurora season in Sweden is roughly September–March; in summer the nights are too bright even when activity is high.